James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash has officially kicked off its box-office run, bringing in an estimated $12 million during Thursday previews that began at 2 p.m. The highly anticipated threequel is now positioned for a major holiday weekend, even as its preview numbers land slightly below those of its predecessor.
A Softer Start Than ‘Way of Water,’ but Strong Holiday Potential
The $12 million haul comes in $5 million lower than the $17 million earned by 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water during previews. That film went on to score a $53.2 million Friday and $134.1 million opening weekend, demonstrating the franchise’s marathon-style performance rather than a reliance on front-loaded turnout.
Industry analysts note the calendar as a major factor. With Christmas just days away, moviegoers often delay their big-screen outings until after holiday obligations clear. For a 3-hour, 17-minute epic, audiences tend to prioritize optimal showtimes — something that historically works in Avatar’s favor as January approaches.
Current tracking places Fire and Ash between $90 million and $105 million for its domestic opening weekend.
Comparisons to Other Major Follow-Ups
The preview figures align with other recent franchise sequels:
- Dune: Part Two earned $32.2 million combined Thursday/Friday on its way to an $82.5 million debut
- Captain America: Brave New World scored $40.9 million from previews and first Friday screenings, finishing with an $88.8 million 3-day
Marvel films typically attract heavy first-night crowds driven by FOMO, while the Avatar series tends to draw audiences gradually over an extended theatrical run.
Critical reception for Fire and Ash currently sits at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, lower than the original film’s 81% and Way of Water’s 76%.
Other Thursday Preview Performances
While Cameron’s blockbuster dominated the night, multiple new releases posted notable numbers:
The Housemaid (Lionsgate) — $2.25M–$2.3M
The R-rated thriller starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried is performing ahead of expectations. With strong 77% certified fresh reviews, the film is projected to land in the mid-to-high teens, though some analysts think it could surpass $20M over the holiday stretch.
Comparisons:
- Hustlers: $2.5M previews
- Don’t Worry Darling: $3.1M
- Where the Crawdads Sing: $2.3M
David (Angel Studios) — Around $1.8M
The animated, faith-based film has strong presales totaling $14M and is projected to finish the weekend in the $20M–$25M range. Rotten Tomatoes ratings show a split — 63% critics, but an impressive 97% audience score.
The SpongeBob Movie: The Search for Squarepants (Paramount) — $1.3M
The fourth installment in the franchise earned previews comparable to Boss Baby 2, which opened to $16M. Early projections place SpongeBob’s new adventure somewhere between the high teens and $20M. Notably, the film sits at 85% fresh, the highest Rotten Tomatoes score in SpongeBob’s big-screen history.
A Packed Holiday Box Office Ahead
With most K–12 schools not off on Thursday (only 8%), turnout is expected to grow sharply as 81% of students begin holiday break by Monday. That shift could significantly benefit all family-oriented films as the Christmas corridor accelerates.
As opening weekend gets underway, Avatar: Fire and Ash is set to dominate the conversation — with its long-term performance likely determining whether Cameron’s franchise continues its multi-film trajectory. For ongoing box office coverage, entertainment updates, and industry analysis, follow InvestRecords.com.
