How reliable is Twitter for political predictions?

A lot of people consider Twitter as a reliable platform for gathering information from celebrities. However, some experts are of the view that the social media platform could not be a reliable source for assessing the fortune of political parties. One example they cited is the 2021 US Presidential election. Twitter gave an impression that the Democrats were poised for a good victory across the country. However, when the votes were counted, Republicans won all three statewide offices in Virginia.

Pew survey

According to an in-depth survey conducted by Pew Research Center among U.S. adults who use Twitter, it was found that the users report a mix of both positive and negative experiences on the site. The study was conducted to better understand the users’ behaviors and experiences on the site. Around 46 per cent of the users said the site has increased their understanding of current events in the last year, while 30 per cent acknowledged that the platform made them feel more politically engaged.

Inaccurate info

However, 33 per cent of users felt that there was a lot of misleading or inaccurate information on the platform. Around 53 per cent said inaccurate or misleading information is a major problem on the site. The study also found that a relatively small share of highly active users produced the vast majority of content on Twitter. The study found that the most active 25 per cent of U.S. adults on Twitter by tweet volume produced 97 per cent of all tweets from these users. In short, the opinion on Twitter might not be the verdict of the majority.

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